{"as_of":"2026-10-18T21:16:27.722Z","methods":[{"method_id":"sec_events_rules_v1","method_version":"1.0.0","target_type":"sec_negative_followup","horizon_months":6,"predictions_made":227,"pending":227,"resolved":0,"mean_brier_score":null,"first_prediction_at":"2026-09-03T20:15:28.364Z","first_resolvable_on":"2027-03-02"}],"totals":{"predictions_made":227,"resolved":0,"pending":227},"scoring":"mean_brier_score is the Brier score of the stated probability against the observed outcome: 0 is perfect, 0.25 is what always saying 50% gets you, and 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better.","how_to_read_this":"A method with nothing resolved yet has made claims but proved nothing — that is the honest state of a young ledger, not a gap in the data. Scores also do not become skill until the base rate is known: a flag that fires on companies which file often would score well for the wrong reason.","method_registry":"/v1/metadata","immutability":"Predictions are append-only (CLAUDE.md invariant 8). Resolution fills the outcome and score; the forecast itself is never edited, and a changed method gets a new version and new rows rather than restating old ones."}