{"as_of":"2026-09-03T19:56:35.458Z","methods":[],"totals":{"predictions_made":0,"resolved":0,"pending":0},"scoring":"mean_brier_score is the Brier score of the stated probability against the observed outcome: 0 is perfect, 0.25 is what always saying 50% gets you, and 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better.","how_to_read_this":"A method with nothing resolved yet has made claims but proved nothing — that is the honest state of a young ledger, not a gap in the data. Scores also do not become skill until the base rate is known: a flag that fires on companies which file often would score well for the wrong reason.","method_registry":"/v1/metadata","immutability":"Predictions are append-only (CLAUDE.md invariant 8). Resolution fills the outcome and score; the forecast itself is never edited, and a changed method gets a new version and new rows rather than restating old ones."}